Numbers

The Numbers

DICK'S now trades like a high-quality specialty retailer with a temporary acquisition problem: the core DICK'S business still compounds through category authority, loyalty, and store productivity, but Foot Locker adds scale while dragging margins, cash conversion, and lease-adjusted leverage. The single metric most likely to rerate or derate the stock is EV/EBITDA after Foot Locker normalization; if synergies and back-to-school execution pull EBITDA up, the multiple can look reasonable on forward numbers, but on reported FY2025 cash earnings it is already stretched.

Current Price

$219.02

Market Cap

$19.5B

Revenue (TTM)

$17.2B

28.1% FY YoY

ROIC

8.3%

Consensus 12m Target

$243

10.9% Upside

What It Is Economically

No Results

DICK'S is no longer just a U.S. sporting-goods chain: FY2025 consolidated sales include four-plus months of Foot Locker, but the profit pool still came from the legacy DICK'S business.

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Footwear jumped to 40% of sales after Foot Locker, making sneaker-cycle health and vendor access much more important than the old hardlines-heavy mix.

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The 2021 margin spike was not permanent, but the pre-acquisition DICK'S business reset profitability above the 2010s level; FY2025 margins fell because Foot Locker and integration costs entered the P&L.

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The recent growth acceleration is acquisition math, not a sudden 60% organic inflection, so margin and cash follow-through matter more than the revenue headline.

Health And Durability

No Results

Is this a well-run business that will still be around in 10 years? The reported ratios say yes for the core franchise, but the durability question has moved from "can DICK'S earn high returns?" to "can management digest Foot Locker without letting leverage and inventory drag stay elevated?"

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Operating cash flow covered reported earnings, but trailing five-year FCF was only 66% of net income because House of Sport, Field House, distribution, and integration capex consumed the gap.

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Capital return has been real, but FY2025 shows the tradeoff: capex alone exceeded buybacks and dividends combined as management invested through the Foot Locker reset.

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Lease-adjusted net debt / EBITDA rose to 3.4x, so the balance sheet is still workable but no longer the under-levered DICK'S profile investors owned before Foot Locker.

What The Market Thinks

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Current lease-adjusted EV/EBITDA is about 16.3x versus a 9.2x five-year average and 8.4x 20-year average, roughly 3.0 standard deviations above history on reported EBITDA.

Consensus Gap

10.9%

5y Median EV/EBITDA (x)

8.7

Current EV/EBITDA (x)

16.3

Forward P/E on FY2026 Guide

15.4

The apparent contradiction is the point: trailing EV/EBITDA looks expensive, while forward P/E looks more normal if FY2026 EPS guidance around $14.20 is credible.

No Results

DKS deserves a premium to weaker sporting-goods peers because its core margin is durable and scale is rising, but the premium over Academy is hard to defend unless Foot Locker stops diluting margins and cash conversion.

Fair Value And Scenario

No Results

The fair-value range is wide because this is no longer a clean steady-state retailer: bear is about $177 if Foot Locker stays dilutive, base is about $243 if the FY2026 guide holds, and bull is about $300 only if synergies, sneaker demand, and DICK'S core comps all work at once.

The numbers confirm that DICK'S has built a better retail franchise than the old sporting-goods category implied, with positive comps, strong operating cash flow, and a core segment still earning about 11% margin. They contradict the simple "bigger is better" acquisition story because FY2025 revenue growth came with lower margins, weaker FCF conversion, and higher lease-adjusted leverage. Watch Foot Locker segment profit, inventory days, and capex intensity next year; those three numbers will tell investors whether the deal is becoming a compounding asset or a valuation drag.